Rather than plan the demise of a coach and likely most of his staff, I thought it might be nice to discuss something a little more fun and interesting (at least for me). Though I am sure the posts about firing and replacing the coach will get more attention, like a car crash on the side of highway generates morbid interest.
I think college football is down to 8 teams with at least some chance of making the playoffs.
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Florida State
Washington
Texas
Oregon
Alabama
Spot #1: Florida State
FSU may not end up the #1 seed but I think based on their remaining schedule they are the team with the highest probability of making the playoffs. They should soundly beat both North Alabama and Florida even though Florida is a rivalry game. Then they will most likely play Louisville in the ACC title game which is a game they should win on paper. Louisville actually only has one loss and did beat Notre Dame. There are some scenarios under which Louisville actually makes the playoffs if they win out and beat Florida State in the title game but those scenarios have a very low probability.
Spot #2: Ohio State or Michigan
I do not think either team will lose the next game and either will beat what is likely to be Iowa in the title game. So, it comes down the the match up at the Big House on November 25. I think Michigan is the more complete team and they are at home, so normally I would pick them but Harbaugh may not be on the sideline for that game. If the injunction sticks and Harbaugh gets to coach, then I think Michigan likely wins the game but without Harbaugh I got a feeling Ohio State will pull it out.
Spot #3: Georgia or Alabama
Both teams have one tough game left before the title game. Georgia plays at Tennessee and Alabama plays at Auburn. Tennessee is a tough team and Auburn has had a mediocre season but the Iron Bowl tends to be a close game regardless of records. I will assume they win those games and will play for a spot in the playoffs on Dec 2. Georgia is in for sure if they win out. If Alabama wins, I think they get a spot even though they lost to Texas.
Spot #4: Washington or Oregon or Texas or Georgia or Alabama
Both Washington and Oregon have to play Oregon State before they make the title game. If either lose against OSU, I think they are out. If both win out, the regular season and WA wins the Pac 12 title game I think they are in the playoffs. If Oregon wins then I think they will need Texas to lose a game and Georgia to beat Alabama. Texas has to play at Iowa State and then win the title game which could be against K State, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. They may luck out and play Oklahoma State who beat Oklahoma and K State this year and just lost at UCF 45-3. I think they will need Oregon to beat Washington and Georgia to beat Alabama to get in. Then there is the scenario that will drive Oregon and especially Texas fans mad. If Alabama beats Georgia in a close game and Oregon beats Washington, then I can see the NCAA committee putting both Alabama and Georgia in the playoffs as the #3 and #4 seeds. People will yell favoritism and East Coast bias but then we will all watch Georgia beat either Ohio State or Michigan and Alabama beat Florida State. Then there will be silence as the SEC takes home another title. Not saying it will happen but it very well might.
Anyone else interested in talking about something other than the horror show that has been UCLA football over the last 2 weeks and 20 years?
I think college football is down to 8 teams with at least some chance of making the playoffs.
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Florida State
Washington
Texas
Oregon
Alabama
Spot #1: Florida State
FSU may not end up the #1 seed but I think based on their remaining schedule they are the team with the highest probability of making the playoffs. They should soundly beat both North Alabama and Florida even though Florida is a rivalry game. Then they will most likely play Louisville in the ACC title game which is a game they should win on paper. Louisville actually only has one loss and did beat Notre Dame. There are some scenarios under which Louisville actually makes the playoffs if they win out and beat Florida State in the title game but those scenarios have a very low probability.
Spot #2: Ohio State or Michigan
I do not think either team will lose the next game and either will beat what is likely to be Iowa in the title game. So, it comes down the the match up at the Big House on November 25. I think Michigan is the more complete team and they are at home, so normally I would pick them but Harbaugh may not be on the sideline for that game. If the injunction sticks and Harbaugh gets to coach, then I think Michigan likely wins the game but without Harbaugh I got a feeling Ohio State will pull it out.
Spot #3: Georgia or Alabama
Both teams have one tough game left before the title game. Georgia plays at Tennessee and Alabama plays at Auburn. Tennessee is a tough team and Auburn has had a mediocre season but the Iron Bowl tends to be a close game regardless of records. I will assume they win those games and will play for a spot in the playoffs on Dec 2. Georgia is in for sure if they win out. If Alabama wins, I think they get a spot even though they lost to Texas.
Spot #4: Washington or Oregon or Texas or Georgia or Alabama
Both Washington and Oregon have to play Oregon State before they make the title game. If either lose against OSU, I think they are out. If both win out, the regular season and WA wins the Pac 12 title game I think they are in the playoffs. If Oregon wins then I think they will need Texas to lose a game and Georgia to beat Alabama. Texas has to play at Iowa State and then win the title game which could be against K State, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. They may luck out and play Oklahoma State who beat Oklahoma and K State this year and just lost at UCF 45-3. I think they will need Oregon to beat Washington and Georgia to beat Alabama to get in. Then there is the scenario that will drive Oregon and especially Texas fans mad. If Alabama beats Georgia in a close game and Oregon beats Washington, then I can see the NCAA committee putting both Alabama and Georgia in the playoffs as the #3 and #4 seeds. People will yell favoritism and East Coast bias but then we will all watch Georgia beat either Ohio State or Michigan and Alabama beat Florida State. Then there will be silence as the SEC takes home another title. Not saying it will happen but it very well might.
Anyone else interested in talking about something other than the horror show that has been UCLA football over the last 2 weeks and 20 years?
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